Evaluating the Effect of U.S. Energy Policy and Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification on PM2.5 Concentrations and Associated Health Impacts in Disadvantaged Communities

Heavy-duty trucking, particularly drayage (i.e., short-haul, intermodal) trucking, disproportionately affects disadvantaged communities due to geographic proximity, making it a target for electrification. The net impacts of truck electrification will shift in both magnitude and geographic distribution as renewable energy gains an increasing share of total generation, which recent U.S. energy policy is expected to accelerate. This study evaluated the potential effects of recent Federal energy policy on the net air pollution-related health impacts of truck electrification in disadvantaged communities to determine whether new investments will increase or decrease the total and relative share of burdens in these communities. To do this, we modeled the electricity load and associated emissions created by heavy-duty truck electrification. Using an integrated assessment framework, this study combined a freight demand model, charging infrastructure model, vehicle powertrain model, electricity grid model, and air quality model to predict the air pollution-related health impacts of heavy-duty truck electrification for disadvantaged communities compared to the total population. We calculated marginal emissions resulting from truck charging loads before and after the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to assess the relative impacts on disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged communities. The resulting concentration of primary and secondary PM_2.5 were modeled for the continental U.S. at an annual average temporal resolution and a variable spatial resolution (based on population) using the InMAP Source-Receptor Matrix. Population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations were determined for disadvantaged communities and non-disadvantaged communities and were used to calculate absolute and relative disparity. We evaluated each major trucking corridor, considering variations in regional energy systems, and modeled the evolution of the electricity grid through 2050 to understand how the IRA will affect health and air pollution in disadvantaged communities over time. Results showed that truck electrification reduces the relative air pollution disparity for disadvantaged communities over diesel trucks. The IRA further reduces air pollution-related mortality in disadvantaged communities from electricity grid emissions, particularly under a low renewable energy cost scenario. However, results also suggest that a disproportionate share of overall benefits may be accrued in non-disadvantaged communities unless infrastructure investments are made strategically to avoid this outcome.